Formation Chances Increase For Tropical Disturbance
Following a period of tropical dormancy, emerging information suggests the Atlantic might be entering an increasingly active phase as we approach August. The sea area has been witnessing a collection of Saharan dust since the deterioration of Beryl nearly three weeks ago, yet recently produced computer models seem to point towards the possible generation of a new tropical system by the end of July or beginning of August.
Main Development Region Witnesses Wave Action
The Central Atlantic is projected to manifest spin and moisture in the coming days. This is expected to be spurred on by a tropical wave traversing the Main Development Region. Initial stages of development are likely to be gradual, primarily due to the presence of Saharan and dry air within the region. However, conditions may grow increasingly favorable for development as they approach the Antilles. The National Hurricane Center indicates a medium chance of development over the next seven days.
Uncertain Assurance of Development Into Tropical Storm
There are diverging viewpoints among model guidance about whether this system will evolve into a tropical depression or storm, and the trajectory it might follow after it has passed Puerto Rico. There is a general consensus that conditions ahead of this system will be mostly favorable for development.
Water Temperatures and Shear Conditions
Water temperatures in the region currently range from the mid to upper 80s, slightly above the typical late July average. The moisture packet brought in by the tropical wave is anticipated to be substantial and sufficient enough to prevent the system from drying out. Additionally, wind shear is expected to be light to moderate until the system reaches the longitude of the Bahamas.
Favorable Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
This wave of activity coincides with the onset of the most active part of the year in the tropics and a wave of more favorable atmospheric conditions referred to as the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This wave moves around the globe roughly every 40 days and causes a spike in tropical activities as it passes by. This pattern has recently caused the formation of a Category 4 typhoon and a tropical storm in the western Pacific following a cyclone drought that bears similarity to the current situation in the Atlantic.
Furture Of System Still Unkown
The future trajectory of the tropical disturbance is yet undefined. Influenced by the Bermuda High, the disturbance’s likely path lies near the Greater Antilles. The terrain over areas like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba could potentially disrupt and weaken the system. However, the ultimate pathway of this system closer to the United States will be determined by the strength, orientation, and extent of the dome of high pressure currently present in the region.
August Spells Increase in Activity
If the formation of this system occurs in August, it will align with the typical peak season of the Atlantic hurricane. August, September, and October have warmer water temperatures, lower wind shear, and increased humidity across the basin.
A final point to be noted is the region where this upcoming system will navigate is one that is common for storms in August. Therefore, it is essential for individuals, communities, and stakeholders to stay vigilant and up-to-date on weather forecasts, while paying special attention to news and safety guidelines as issued by relevant weather and environmental agencies.
