Emerson College Poll Reveals a Neck and Neck Race Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Key Swing States

Debate podiums facing off.

Polling Shows Tight Race Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

As the political landscape heats up, a recent poll conducted by Emerson College highlights the ongoing struggle between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. The polling, which surveyed seven critical swing states, indicates a competitive race as we approach the upcoming elections.

State-by-State Breakdown

In the battleground states, the results show Harris with a slim lead in Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada, where she holds 50% to Trump’s 47%, 49% to 48%, and 49% to 48%, respectively. However, the race is essentially tied in Pennsylvania at 48% for both candidates. On the other hand, Trump has a slight edge in Wisconsin and North Carolina, leading Harris by one point in both states (49% to 48%). He also leads by three points in Arizona with a score of 50% to 47%.

Gender and Independent Voter Dynamics

According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error.” Kimball further notes that Harris performs better among independent voters in almost all states, with the notable exception of Nevada, where Trump takes the lead with 50% to 44%.

A significant gender divide mirrors the previous election cycle in 2020. In six out of the seven states surveyed, Harris leads Trump among women voters. However, in Arizona, Trump has pulled ahead of Harris by two points among women, a group that had previously supported Democrats in the last presidential election.

Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates

The polling also demonstrates a Democratic lead in statewide Senate or gubernatorial ballots in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These results may play a critical role in shaping the political landscape moving forward as both parties vie for control in these important races.

Top Issues Impacting Voter Sentiment

When asked about “Project 2025” and its impact on supporting Donald Trump, a plurality of voters across the states indicated that it either makes no difference or that they are not familiar with it. Additionally, voters expressed their opinions regarding taxes on tips, debating whether these should be eliminated or kept taxable.

A separate question asked voters how they believe President Biden will be remembered in history—whether as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average, or poor. The responses could provide insights into how the current administration is viewed ahead of the elections.

Polling Methodology

The poll encompassed a diverse group of likely voters across different states. The sample size for Arizona was 720 voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.6%. For both Georgia and Michigan, the sample size was 800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4% each. Pennsylvania had 950 respondents with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. Nevada comprised 1,168 participants, yielding a narrower credibility interval of +/-2.8%. In North Carolina, there were 775 respondents, with a +/-3.5% margin, while Wisconsin had 850 with a +/-3.3% credibility interval.

The data was carefully weighted to align with statewide voter demographics, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, and voter registration records. The survey was conducted from August 25 to 28, 2024, utilizing various methods to reach respondents, including cell phone and landline interactions, with an online panel to ensure inclusivity.

Conclusion

The Emerson College polling results reveal a highly competitive political environment as the elections draw closer. With shifting voter sentiments and a close race between the candidates, both parties will undoubtedly continue to strategize to gain footholds in these vital swing states.